La Organización Internacional del Trabajo, OIT, informó sobre la tendencia latinoamericana del empleo en el 2009 y de arranque nos dice que la crisis ya llegó a nuestra región.
La crisis financiera internacional no solo pondrá fin al ciclo de bonanza económica por el que atravesó la región, también acabará con la reducción sostenida del desempleo urbano de los últimos cinco años.
Esta situación, llevará a que la tasa de desocupación urbana suba de 7,9% a 8,3% el 2009. Esto significa que entre 1,5 millones y 2,4 millones de personas se sumarían a los 15,7 millones de desocupados actuales. "La crisis del empleo ya llegó a la región”, advirtió el director regional de la OIT para América Latina y el Caribe, Jean Maninat.
Javier Verdera, especialista en política de empleo de la OIT, sostiene que el número de desocupados en Lima Metropolitana aumentará de 338 mil a 400 mil este año y que la tasa de desempleo en el Perú, pasará de 8,6% a 9% o 9,4%. Para llegar a esta conclusión evaluó dos indicadores: el último reporte del INEI (que revela una caída en sectores vinculados a la exportación) y las proyecciones del crecimiento del PBI para el 2009 de la Cepal (de 5%).
Si se compara con otros países de la región, donde la tasa de desempleo se disparará, el impacto de la crisis en el Perú será mínimo. "Estas cifras (de desempleo) podrían incluso ser menores; todo dependerá de la rapidez con la que el Gobierno implemente su plan anticrisis. Además hay que considerar que el Perú es el único país que registrará un crecimiento superior al de la región y que la población desocupada probablemente buscará autoemplearse en actividades como comercio y servicios", acotó Verdera.
Esa es la versión de la OIT, organismo que depende de las Naciones Unidas.
Otro organismo internacional que depende de la ONU es el Fondo Monetario Internacional(FMI) que vigila la política monetaria de los países miembros, ha despertado con dolor de cabeza y una terrible depresión.
El FMI ve todo negro el futuro inmediato de América Latina, dice que el crecimiento en América Latina para este año será menos de la mitad de lo previsto inicialmente y lo colocó en tan sólo un 1,1 por ciento debido al empeoramiento del entorno económico para los países emergentes.
En noviembre, había pronosticado que la región iba a crecer un 2,5 por ciento en el 2008, pero las cosas han empeorado mucho desde entonces.
América Latina se resentirá de la caída de la demanda de sus exportaciones y el "colapso" de los precios de las materias primas.
El Fondo prevé ahora que el barril de petróleo se venderá a 50 dólares en promedio este año, frente a los 68 dólares de su pronóstico anterior. Una muy mala noticia para Venezuela, Ecuador y México, en especial.
Para el 2010, el FMI prevé un crecimiento del 3 por ciento en América Latina, un punto porcentual menos que su vaticinio de noviembre.
México, el país más vinculado a Estados Unidos, se verá arrastrado a la recesión, con un decrecimiento del 0,3 por ciento este año.
Brasil, por su parte, crecerá un 1,8 por ciento este año, lo que representa un frenazo tremendo en comparación con el 5,8 por ciento del año pasado. En el 2010 su PIB aumentará un 3,5 por ciento, según el Fondo.
China crecerá este año un 6,7 por ciento, frente al 9 por ciento del 2008.
De forma colectiva, el planeta crecerá este año tan sólo un 0,5 por ciento, la menor cifra desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial, mientras que en el 2010 experimentará un repunte "gradual", hasta el 3 por ciento, siempre que los Gobiernos lleven a cabo intervenciones decisivas en la economía, advierte el FMI.
El FMI cree que Estados Unidos, el epicentro de la crisis, se contraerá un 1,6 por ciento este año, pero augura que la recuperación comenzará también aquí, con un crecimiento del 1,6 por ciento en el 2010.
Sálvense quién pueda de la agorera que anuncia desastres y calamidades económicas. Se olvidó de su razón de ser. Sus estatutos declaran como objetivos principales la promoción de políticas cambiarias sostenibles a nivel internacional, facilitar el comercio internacional y reducir la pobreza, y no el expandir pesimismo y negros nubarrones.
Felizmente, no nos miró, sino nos hubiera fulminado con sus lastimeros presagios pesimistas que seguramente son muy realistas para los países que se han quedado mirando a la luna de Paita.
Reconocemos que la crisis es brutal, pero la fe mueve montañas.
Claro, fe y obras.
Obedmatías@gmail.com
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The general difficulties of women's and men's style
Both men and women can feel the difficulties of maintaining their clothing up-to-date and in time, yet men's style usually feels a lot less complicated. Of course, for both sexes, outfits and fashion options can be equally as complex, and there are many'fashionable'items that could easily become fashion faux pas - who are able to say they often see people travelling in 70s flames? On the other hand, men's style includes a few choice goods that can exist forever - which man is planning to look out of position with a good-quality, tailored suit, for instance? Pick basic pieces, colours and fabrics and you'll never seem out-of-place.
Why common men's fashion is eternal
The traditional man's suit has barely changed for over a hundred years. True, there are many kinds for different occasions, nevertheless they are all common in their pursuit of a wise, sharp look for the person. The neat thing about common style for men is that it's simply fashionable effectively cool. A well-groomed lady can more often than not appear his sharpest in a well-tailored suit, and it is a testament to the style of such apparel. A match will be worn to work in several occupations due to the professional search it affords to the wearer, instilling a sense of respect and confidence. Similarly a match will be used to several social functions, like a tuxedo to a black-tie affair. This extraordinary flexibility which allows suits to be worn in almost all functions is what gives it its timeless border and a lasting invest men's fashion.
Contemporary trends in traditional men's fashion
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